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Themes 2026Level 1BasicsUpdated Current investment themes
Thematic investing means betting on long-term structural changes. It's fascinating but also a trap: themes are often at their most expensive when they're talked about the most.
What thematic investing is, and its trap
A thematic investor focuses on a single trend: artificial intelligence, defense, the energy transition. Be careful: when a theme is in the headlines, it's often already priced in, and you end up buying at the top. Themes work as a satellite, not as the core.
Four themes that define the decade
Below are four structural forces: what they're about, why now, how to invest and what the risk is. These are not recommendations but a framework for understanding what the markets are talking about.
How to approach themes
Thematic investments usually complement a portfolio, and how large a share they take is the investor's own decision. A broad thematic ETF diversifies away the risk of a single company, and it's good to ask whether the story is already in the price. If a theme has been in the headlines for a year, the best returns may be behind it.
Diversify within the theme, too
Picking a single winner is hard. Many of yesterday's hot names are today's disappointments. A broad thematic ETF spreads the risk within the theme and is more likely to capture the winner.
Megatrend or fad: how to tell them apart
Not all themes are equal, and the most important skill is telling a structural megatrend from a passing fad. A megatrend rests on a long-term force that is almost certain to play out (an aging population, growing electricity consumption, the explosion in the amount of data), whereas a fad is a story that can vanish as quickly as it appeared. A good test is to ask: would this development happen even if nobody were talking about it right now? If the answer is yes, it's more likely a lasting theme; if the theme lives on enthusiasm and expectations alone, the risk of buying at the top is high.
Is the story already in the price?
The hardest part of thematic investing isn't identifying the right theme but buying it at the right price. The market prices in expectations in advance, so by the time a theme is in the headlines, its future growth is often already baked into share prices. This explains why even the right theme can disappoint: the companies grow as expected, but the shares don't rise, because the growth was already paid for. The practical discipline is to look at valuation. If the theme's companies are priced at exceptionally high multiples, you're paying full price for promises about the future, and there's little room for disappointment. The best moment to buy a theme is typically before people talk about it, not after.
Themes are linked to each other
It's not worth thinking of themes as separate silos, because they often feed each other. Artificial intelligence is a good example: its computing power requires huge amounts of electricity, which makes the energy transition and power grids an essential part of the same story. Data centers need reliable baseload power, which has brought nuclear power and copper back into the conversation. For an investor, this linkage is both an opportunity and a reminder: focusing on a single theme misses the fact that most structural changes are intertwined. Broad diversification captures these connections automatically, whereas a narrow thematic bet exposes you to a dip in one link of the chain.
AI and data centers
What: AI computing power is driving huge investments in chips and data centers. How: a broad technology ETF. Risk: high valuations.
Defense and security
What: European defense spending is rising structurally. How: defense ETFs. Risk: politically charged, valuations have risen.
Energy transition
What: electricity consumption is growing → grids, nuclear power, copper. How: infrastructure ETFs. Risk: regulation and cyclicality.
Demographics and health
What: the population is aging → demand for healthcare is growing. How: a healthcare ETF. Risk: regulation, patents.
This content is for information purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation. Investing always involves the risk of losing capital. The value of financial instruments and investments can go up or down, and past performance is no guarantee of future returns.
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