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Closing prices 21 Oct 2026Market review
The direction of the markets at a glance. The overview shows the main indexes, yields and commodities, and the sections cover sectors, yield curves, all commodities and upcoming releases. The figures update once the trading day has ended.
- VIX:VIX:Rising→Neutral
- S&P 500:S&P 500:Weakening→Neutral
- STOXX Europe 600:STOXX 600:Strengthening→Neutral
- US 10y yield:US 10y:Weakening→Neutral
- Germany 10y yield:Germany 10y:Weakening→Neutral
- WTI oil:WTI:Strengthening→Neutral
- Copper:Copper:Weakening→Neutral
- EUR/USD:EUR/USD:Neutral→Strengthening
- Bitcoin:Bitcoin:Neutral→Strengthening
Equities
Sectors, themes and risk gaugesKey stock indexes, change over the month
Yields
Yield curves by country10-year government bond yields, change over the month in basis points. The color follows the yield: a rising yield shows in green.
Commodities
All 11 commoditiesGold, oil and copper, change over the month
Crypto-assets
Crypto courseBitcoin, the mood of the crypto market, and whether other cryptocurrencies are moving more strongly than bitcoin. The value of crypto-assets fluctuates sharply, and the gauges describe the past and do not predict the future.
30/50 of the largest cryptocurrencies rose more than bitcoin over 90 days (bitcoin +29.3%). Above 75 is altcoin season and below 25 bitcoin season.
A growing share often signals caution, as money moves into the largest cryptocurrency. A falling share is often linked to altcoins gaining ground.
Risk and currencies
Volatility and the dollar. The color follows the series itself: a rising VIX shows in green.
Upcoming releases
Full calendarThe next key events, times in Finnish time
| Time | Area | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 23 Oct | |||||
| 2:30 | Japan | CPI (m/m), Sep? | – | – | 0.1 |
| 2:30 | Japan | Inflation rate (y/y), Sep? | – | 2 | 1.9 |
| 2:30 | Japan | Core inflation rate (y/y), Sep? | – | 2.1 | 1.7 |
| 3:30 | Japan | Composite PMI, Oct | – | 51.9 | 52.3 |
The direction of equities varies by region; the yield picture is mixed across countries; metals are hardly taking a side. In the short term, fading: the dollar index; bottoming out: EUR/USD; turning down: Nikkei.
Sector strength
SPDR sector funds against the S&P 500 (SPY) on weekly closes, in percentage points
Leading: Health care, Energy, Consumer staples, Consumer discretionary. Lagging: Industrials, Communication services. Cyclicals are in the lead, which points to an appetite for risk.
| Sector | 1 mo | 3 mo | Trend and momentum |
|---|---|---|---|
| Health care | +6.7 | +10.5 | Leading↑ strengthening |
| Energy | +6.6 | +15.0 | Leading↑ strengthening |
| Consumer staples | +5.9 | +4.2 | Leading↑ strengthening |
| Consumer discretionary | +4.3 | +5.8 | Leading↑ strengthening |
| Materials | +3.1 | +0.6 | In line↑ strengthening |
| Utilities | +2.9 | −8.6 | In line→ neutral |
| Financials | +0.7 | −0.1 | In line↑ strengthening |
| Real estate | −0.3 | −7.7 | In line→ neutral |
| Technology | −0.4 | +7.3 | In line↓ weakening |
| Industrials | −0.6 | −7.6 | Lagging→ neutral |
| Communication services | −1.3 | +2.8 | Lagging→ neutral |
Strongest and weakest themes
Thematic funds by their gap to the S&P 500 over the month, in percentage points, weekly closes
Risk appetite gauges
Six pairs of stocks that show the market’s appetite for risk. The ratio is indexed to 100 six months ago, weekly closes. The dashed line is the 10-week average.
The gauges lean toward caution: 0 rising, 5 falling, 0/6 above their own 10-week average. The credit market is weakening, which is worth taking seriously because it often turns before equities. Two-week momentum is clearly pointing down (4/6 weakening), so the weakness is fresh and building.
Market breadth
How many individual stocks take part in the overall move of the market or of a given index. Market breadth helps an investor look under the hood and see whether a rise or fall in a stock index is broad based or driven by only a few large companies. Here breadth is measured from the S&P 500’s sectors and its equal-weight index on a weekly basis.
Cyclical sectors are in the lead, which reinforces the picture of risk appetite; participation is broadening; the equal-weight index is lagging, so the rise rests on the largest companies; no theme stands out on the upside.
Yield curves
A yield curve shows the interest rate at which a government borrows money for different periods, from two years to thirty years. The curve usually rises to the right, because a longer loan demands a higher yield. Short yields follow the central bank’s policy rate, and long yields reflect the market’s expectations of growth and inflation.
In the charts, the solid line is today and the dashed line a month ago, on the same scale for every country. Below are the daily yields over 45 days.
Over the month, the curve steepened in the US and Germany and flattened in Japan.
What does this mean for an investor?
- A steepening curve. When the gap between long and short yields widens, the market often expects rate cuts or a pickup in growth and inflation. Rising long yields lower the value of long government bonds and of the bond funds that hold them.
- A flattening or inverted curve. When short yields rise to the level of long yields or above them, monetary policy is usually tight and growth is expected to slow. An inverted curve has historically preceded many recessions, but the lag has varied a lot, and it is not a forecast.
- Yields and equities. High long yields raise the return investors require, which weighs especially on the valuations of growth companies and real estate. Short yields, in turn, show what deposits and short-term bond funds can earn.
- Differences between countries. The curves move at different speeds, because central banks and inflation differ. The difference also shows in currencies: a higher yield attracts capital and usually supports the country’s currency.
US: the curve steepened led by the long end, which points to pressure on long bonds. Germany: the curve steepened led by the short end, so the market is pricing in rate cuts. Japan: the curve flattened as short yields rose. The direction of yields varies by country.
Commodities by group
Commodities are the economy’s basic goods, and their prices reflect the balance of supply and demand. Energy, that is oil and natural gas, directly affects inflation and companies’ costs. Among metals, gold is seen as a hedge against uncertainty, while the price of copper follows industrial demand and therefore economic growth. Agricultural prices are moved most by the weather, harvests and trade policy, so they rarely say much about the direction of the economy as a whole.
The cards show the change over one month and three months. WTI, gold and copper are daily, the others weekly. Prices are in US dollars or cents.
Copper and gold are stuck in their ranges, so there is no clear macro message; the direction of energy is mixed; agricultural products are split, and this is mostly about supply.
The next two weeks
Key macro data and central banks (US, euro area, Japan) and earnings reports from the largest companies. Times in Finnish time. The calendar updates every hour, and published figures appear in the Actual column.
How to read the figures
Every series is classified with two signals. The trend shows which way the series has moved over the month, and momentum shows which way it is turning right now. Both are scaled to the series’ own swings, so a calm yield and a volatile commodity are judged by the same yardstick. All figures and readings are calculated by rules, not by hand.
A series’ change over the month is compared with a band that is half of the series’ usual monthly swing (±0.5σ). A rise above the band is Rising, a fall below it Falling, and a move that stays inside it Neutral.
Sectors and themes are compared with the S&P 500 (SPY), and the classes are Leading, In line and Lagging.
The same comparison over a shorter window: a week (five trading days) for daily series and two weeks for weekly series. The result shows as an arrow next to the trend: ↑ strengthening, → neutral or ↓ weakening.
Momentum reacts faster than the trend, so it reveals turns before the trend has had time to change.
When trend and momentum differ
Rising ↓ weakening
The rise continues on a monthly scale, but the pull has faded in recent days. Often the first sign of a turn.
Falling ↑ strengthening
The monthly fall is still in force, but in the short term the selling pressure has eased.
Neutral ↑ / ↓
The monthly move is muted, but momentum hints at which way the series is breaking away.
Colors and yields
Calculation rules
| Item | Data | Trend | Momentum |
|---|---|---|---|
| The 12 overview tiles | Daily closes | Change over 30 calendar days vs ±0.5σ×√21, σ from daily changes over 65 trading days | Change over 5 days vs ±0.5σ×√5 |
| Sectors and themes | Weekly closes, adjusted prices | Monthly gap to SPY vs ±0.5σ×√4.33, σ from weekly gaps over about six months | Two-week gap to SPY vs ±0.5σ×√2 |
| Risk appetite gauges | Weekly closes, ratio of the pair | Four-week change vs ±0.5σ×√4.33 | Two-week change vs ±0.5σ×√2 |
| Sector breadth | Weekly closes | Four-week change of more than ±5 pp | At least one sector in two weeks |
| RSP/SPY | Weekly closes | As for the risk appetite gauges | As for the risk appetite gauges |
| Commodities | WTI, gold and copper daily, the others weekly | Monthly change vs ±0.5σ on a monthly basis | A week for daily series, two weeks for weekly series |
| Bitcoin | Daily price in euros at 00:00 UTC, every day of the week | Change over 30 days vs ±0.5σ×√30, σ from daily changes over 90 days | Change over 7 days vs ±0.5σ×√7 |
| Altcoin season index | The 50 largest cryptocurrencies by market value, excluding stablecoins, gold tokens, and wrapped and staked tokens | Share of cryptocurrencies whose 90-day change beats bitcoin’s; 75 or more is altcoin season and 25 or less bitcoin season | The index over 90 days |
Data and limitations
Source. Prices, yields and calendars come from EODHD. The page updates when the trading day has ended in New York, Frankfurt or Tokyo. Crypto prices and market shares come from CoinGecko and sentiment (the Fear & Greed index) from alternative.me, and they update once a day at midnight UTC, which is 3:00 Finnish time in summer and 2:00 in winter.
Confirmed closing prices only. Every series is fetched up to its market’s last confirmed close: Tokyo at 15:30 local time, Europe (STOXX 600 and German yields) at 18:00 Frankfurt time, and the US, currencies, gold and commodity futures at 17:00 New York time. Values from a day still in progress are not used. That is why, during the Finnish day, the US figures are the previous day’s closes.
Limitations. The monthly trend says nothing about the long-term primary trend. Weekly series are not part of the comparison with the previous day. In sector breadth, one sector moves the figure by about nine percentage points. Macro events are picked by keyword, because the data source does not rank their importance.
The market review is an analysis tool, not investment advice. Past price changes do not predict future ones.