Kvarn X Pro weekly report: Week 40
The last week has seen a downward trend in the cryptocurrency market. The prices of cryptocurrencies rose until Saturday, after which they turned sharply downwards. During the week, the price of the largest cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, fell by about three percent, and the price of the second-largest cryptocurrency, Ether, fell by about five percent. The total value of the rest of the cryptomarket (excluding the largest stablecoins) decreased by about two percent
The last week has seen a downward trend in the cryptocurrency market. The prices of cryptocurrencies rose until Saturday, after which they turned sharply downwards. During the week, the price of the largest cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, fell by about three percent, and the price of the second-largest cryptocurrency, Ether, fell by about five percent. The total value of the rest of the cryptomarket (excluding the largest stablecoins) decreased by about two percent
With the market's relatively lockstep movements, there was no significant change in Bitcoin dominance. However, due to Ethereum's weaker price development compared to the rest of the market, the ETH/BTC ratio dropped by about three percent.
The rise in the cryptomarket at the end of the last week and the following sharp drop at the beginning of the this week created a significant divergence in the weekly price trend analysis. Among the tokens in the Kvarn X trading service selection, the best performer was WIF, which, along with other meme coins, saw a strong increase, rising by about 24 percent over the week. Other notable gainers included SUI (+11%) and FTM (+8%). The weakest price developments of the week were seen in Quant's QNT token (-12%), Arweave's AR (-12%), and AAVE (-11%).
New "Higher High"?
The bifurcated week provides an opportunity for several observations and interpretations in market analysis. We will first present our observations from the weekend's price top and after that analyze the sharp price drop in the last few days.
Over the weekend, the price of the largest cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, rose to a high of about $66,500. It is noteworthy that this local top exceeded the one seen in August (around $65,100). Thus, this is the first "higher high" since March. When combined with Bitcoin's "higher low" made in September, these would indicate the beginning of an upward trend.
A new "higher high" is a significant factor for the sentiment in the cryptocurrency market, as although it does not guarantee anything for the future, it at least provides a basis for expecting higher prices going forward. This marks a clear change from the more than six-month-long downtrend, in which each local top has been lower than the previous one.
In the name of fairness, it should also be noted that some analysts have presented also an alternative interpretation of the price action. According to this view, the late August top and early September low are just noise in one continuous uptrend that lasted from early August to the end of September, and they should not be counted as distinct highs and lows.
According to this interpretation, the last low in Bitcoin's price is still the $49,000 mark from early August (compared to the July low, this is a "lower low"), and the peak at the end of September was yet another "lower high" (compared to the late July local top).
In our analysis, we are inclined to give more weight to the first interpretation, but we want to highlight the latter perspective as well. Regardless of which interpretation one leans towards, the next interesting and informative data point will be the next local low, toward which we currently seem to be heading. More on this next.