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Bonds · 03 / 09
BasicsLevel 1Beginner7 minUpdated

Why do yields and prices move in opposite directions?

This is the most important insight in bond investing, and it is counterintuitive. When interest rates rise, the price of bonds already in circulation falls.

What you'll learn
  • Why the value of an old bond and market interest rates move in opposite directions
  • Why the effect is stronger in long bonds
  • Why a “safe” bond fund can make a loss

An old bond competes against new ones

When interest rates rise, the price of bonds already in circulation falls, and vice versa. Why? New bonds offer a higher interest rate, so an old low-interest bond is less attractive. Its price falls until its yield to maturity matches the market.

A seesaw: the longer it is, the bigger the swing

How much does the price fall? That depends on the time to maturity. The longer the bond, the bigger the drop, because you have to put up with the low interest rate for longer.

Think of a seesaw: short bonds swing a little, long bonds a lot. This sensitivity is measured by duration, which is covered in more detail in lesson 05.

Short bond
A small price reaction.
It matures soon and the money can be reinvested at a higher rate. The old low rate only hurts for a short while.
Long bond
A large price reaction.
You are locked into the low rate for a decade. The lost return builds up over a long period, so the price falls more.

Why this surprises investors

This duration effect is the reason even a “safe” long-term bond fund can make painful losses when interest rates are rising. Many people buy a bond fund precisely because they are looking for safety, and are surprised when its value falls.

The logic works in the other direction too: when interest rates fall, the value of long bonds rises sharply. This is not a flaw but a mechanism that keeps the yields of all bonds in line with each other.

This content is for information purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation. Investing always involves the risk of losing capital. The value of financial instruments and investments can go up or down, and past performance is no guarantee of future returns.

Check your understanding
Test yourself: yields and prices
Three questions. Pick an answer to see the explanation right away.
Kysymys 1 / 3
Interest rates rise. What happens to the price of a bond already in circulation?
Kysymys 2 / 3
Which reacts more strongly to a change in interest rates?
Kysymys 3 / 3
Do you lose money if you hold a bond to maturity after interest rates have risen?
Score: 0 / 3

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